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Let's Analyze the Market !
Here is what happened in the Las Vegas Real Estate Market for the week of June 30th - July 6th with Brendan from The Brendan King Group @ REAL. | 7-days at a glance, 17 days on market, 9.8 weeks supply, 1,061 new inventory, 5,777 active listings, 587 weekly sales, 495 under contract, $571,651 average weekly sales price, and the most expensive home sold this week was $4,500,000.
And here is what happened in the Las Vegas Real Estate Market for the week of July 7th - 13th with Brendan from The Brendan King Group @ REAL. | 7-days at a glance, 16 days on market, 12.1 weeks supply, 1,055 new inventory, 6,126 active listings, 508 weekly sales, 557 under contract, $529,074 average weekly sales price, and the most expensive home sold this week was $3,475,000.
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Text: Market To: 702-553-1955
Brendan King
S.0171492
The Brendan King Group
Office: 702-625-3457
Email: info@kingvegashomes.com
Website: https://www.kingvegashomes.com/
Real Broker, LLC
7997 W. Sahara Ave.
Las Vegas, NV 89117
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This is transcribed (accuracy not guaranteed)
Brendan King (00:10):Hey, what's going everybody?It's Brendan King from the Brendan King Group @ REAL. This week for the marketupdate, I just wanted to do a little video from home so I could do a screenshare and kind of show you what I see as far as what's going on with themarket, what's going on with the data. Everyone's got different opinions, butwe do a good amount of deals, and we definitely see different trends. It'sdefinitely veering toward the buyer side of the market, for sure. We're notthere yet, but there's a lot of homes right now out there that are overpriced,and the buyers are starting to have preferential treatment. Builders arestarting to give lots of incentives with standing inventory. Actually a ton ofincentives have come out in the past couple days. Check out the video afterthis and let me know what you think. But definitely a lot going on and a lotmore we'll chat about this Thursday. Or actually Friday we'll do a video about,in depth, what's going on, because there's so much to talk about. We'lldefinitely let you know. Have a good one.
Brendan King (01:15):All right, so let's check outthe data. So we've got some information here. So one of the things we do everyweek is we actually track the data and put it into a spreadsheet over a longperiod of time. This really helps us understand what's going on, what's thedifference between today and last week, a month ago, six months ago, 12 monthsago. So let me shrink my head here. And so this is a breakdown of really thelast couple weeks right here on the bottom. And if you notice, before we wereat 102 percent of the list price, 101, 100. Now we're kind of sitting in that100 percent of list price received on average. Just it means, on average, whata house lists for is what it sold for.
Brendan King (02:03):But if you look here, thedifference between May, these are in the May time, till now, these are activelistings, we've had quite a big difference. So you haven't really seen much ofa difference in days on market in the past two months as much as you've seenthe change, mostly right here, with weeks of supply. So our weeks of supplyhave gone quite drastically from 3.2 weeks to 12.1 weeks. So we've gone fourtimes the length of time on average that it takes for the supply to bereplaced. This is a number we watch very, very closely. This is what tells youif you're in a buyer's market or a seller's market. So this is three totalmonths of inventory. Currently new inventory, we are at 1,055, but the nextmost important number we watch all the time is active listings. So if we wereat 2,580 back on ... Let's see, 2,580 back on April 28th to May 4th, now we'reat right here, if you look, 6,126 homes on the market.
Brendan King (03:16):So we're up more than double ina matter of less than two months, technically. The reason why we look at thiskind of information is because this is what tells us how we negotiate, how wehandle a listing, what information we tell our client as far as how to handle acertain situation. And in this case, what we're telling a lot of buyers is,hey, come in a little low, depending on the price of the home. It depends onthe price. If it's listed correctly and there's three offers, these types ofthings we need to chat with the listing agent. We need to chat with our buyersand see where it stands.
Brendan King (03:58):I recently saw a home underlisted because the buyers are worried. They have to move to another state. Andthey under listed it, and honestly, probably by 60 or $70,000 because they wantto get rid of it and they've got to move out of state. And they're worried it'sgoing to take three to four months. And then I've seen the complete other sideof the coin where we have properties still listing like it was three months agothinking they're going to get prices that were Hail Mary prices back then. Alot of this will play out as the next month or two comes. This is a normal timeof year when, typically, inventory starts to tick upward anyway.
Brendan King (04:45):Let's check this out here. Sothese are the last two weeks. This is June 30th through July 6th and July 7ththrough July 13th. And if you see the comparison 9.8 weeks of supply last weekand 12.1 weeks of supply the following week, the next number we look at isactive listings. Last week, 5,777. The week before was 5,127. This week westarted at 5,777, and we went up to 6,126. So we're seeing anywhere from threeto 600 additional homes being added to the market every single week. And if younotice the weekly sales, that's ticked downward as well. This time of year,it's the end of the summer, people are getting in their last ditch efforts togo on vacation. You do tend to see the sales tip down a little bit.
Brendan King (05:45):And then you also have this jumpat the same time of under contracts, where last year we were at 936 homes atwent under contract. This year it's at 557. Last week it was at 495. Again, youhave both groups of people, the ones who are on vacation and then the ones whoare trying to rush and get a house before school starts, usually is one of thetipping points. With all this being said it's still a good time for a seller.It's still a good time to get that top price. A lot of people have a ton ofinventory, or I should say equity, not inventory. I've got inventory on thebrain. A lot of people have a ton of equity right now, and you may not get 10offers and get that Hail Mary price, but you're still going to get a good valueout of your home.
Brendan King (06:39):On the buy side, if someone'strying to sell and buy, there's some great opportunity there because they maybe able to be a little more aggressive or buy a home contingent on the sale,which no one's been able to do the past couple years. Another piece of data Iwant everybody to look at is the 10-year treasury yield. So the 10-year isreally what the mortgage rates tend to jibe with. It's not perfectly with the10-year yield, but if you look, this is the last six months on the 10-yearyield. Yes, we've gone up significantly, but at three it sort of calmed down,and I've read a bunch of articles that state that they don't feel the treasuryyield's going to move much more off of this. Maybe a quarter-point up,half-point, but they think this will hold steady in the early threes.
Brendan King (07:41):And that's barring no additionalchanges. If they go up 1 percent, 1 percent, 1 percent on interest rates, the10-year treasury is betting on over a 10-year period. If they see thatinflation continues, and we've got mortgage rates eventually in thesix-and-a-half to seven range, then I think this data that we were talking about,this could start to affect housing prices or go negative. Right now thepredictions that we're seeing are that we're probably going to see a steadyeven keel of zero to 5 percent, somewhere in that range, which is actuallyhistorically normal.
Brendan King (08:23):Either way, don't forget, if youwant this by text every week, text "market" to 702-553-1955. Text"market" to 702-553-1955. We'll absolutely send it to you everysingle week. We're going to jump into this data a bit more on Friday and alittle more detail oriented on this, but just some tidbits of thought that Ihad that I wanted to definitely bring across to everybody. And this link to thehistorical data is actually in our website. We have a state of the economy blogthat has a link to this as well. Either way, have a good one, and we'll see younext time. Bye.
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